Today's Picks

Major League Baseball picks for SEP 05 2010 :
  

 

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All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise. 

 

Colorado +1.20 over SAN DIEGO Pinnacle

Well, we hate to kick a team when they’re down but the Padres are showing no signs of snapping out of this thing anytime soon. The Padres proverbial bubble was supposed to burst a long time ago and now it’s serious as both the Giants and Rockies footsteps, especially the Giants, can be heard loud and clear. Enter Jorge De La Rosa. Elite skills and healthy groundball % (58%) will play well anywhere, even Coors Field. De La Rosa has a xERA of 3.58, which is a testament to just how dominating this guy can be. De La Rosa has a 16/5 K/BB ratio during the last two starts, spanning 14 IP and trends say we haven't yet seen his best. The Padres do not and have not had a strong offense all year but it hasn’t been a problem up until now. Clayton Richard has the weight of the world on his shoulders for this start. Richard is having a very decent year, as is all the Padres starters, but a high strand rate of 77% and the pressure of breaking this ugly nine-game losing streak could absolutely get in the way of this start. This one is all about taking back a tag against this fragile host. Play: Colorado +1.20 (Risking 2 units). 

 

San Francisco +1.23 over LOS ANGELES Pinnacle

The Dodgers 5-4 loss to these Giants yesterday was the defining moment for them this season. Its slim hopes of making the preseason was predicated solely on sweeping the Giants and that hope was wiped out by another meltdown from the bullpen. The Dodgers had a 4-0 lead going to the seventh, a 4-1 lead going to the eighth and a 4-3 lead going to the ninth. Any steam they had is gone and so now is its season. Meanwhile, the Giants sit just two games back of the Padres for the division lead and what seemed like a very improbable task just a week ago is now a reality. The pitching matchup of Jonathan Sanchez vs Hiroki Kuroda is a pretty even one but that’s where the evenness ends. The Giants have big time momentum while the Dodgers were put out of its misery yesterday with that heartbreaking and demoralizing loss. Play: San Francisco +1.23 (Risking 2 units).  

 

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**Base Performance Value or BPV: This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, (all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors) is already a key stat in determining which pitcher’s are in trouble and which are throwing great. A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.

 

**Pure Quality Starts: The old Quality Start method — minimum 6 IP, maximum 3 earned runs — is simplistic and does not measure any real skill. Bill James' "game score" methodology is better, but is not feasible for quick calculation.

 

In PQS, we give a starting pitcher credit for exhibiting certain skills in each of his starts. Then by tracking his "PQS Score" over time, we can follow his progress. A starter earns one point for each of the following criteria...

 

1. The pitcher must have gone a minimum of 6 innings. This measures stamina. If he goes less than 5 innings, he automatically gets a total PQS score of zero, no matter what other stats he produces.

 

2. He must have allowed no more than an equal number of hits to the number of IP. This measures hit prevention.

 

3. His number of strikeouts must be no fewer than two less than his innings pitched. This measures dominance.

 

4. He must have struck out at least twice as many batters as he walked. This measures command.

 

5. He must have allowed no more than one home run. This measures his ability to keep the ball in the park.

 

A perfect PQS score would be 5. Any pitcher who averages 3 or more over the course of the season is probably performing admirably. The nice thing about PQS is it allows you to approach each start as more than an all-or-nothing event.

 

Note the absence of earned runs. No matter how many runs a pitcher allows, if he scores high on the PQS scale, he has hurled a good game in terms of his base skills. The number of runs allowed — a function of not only the pitcher's ability but that of his bullpen and defense — will even out over time.

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