EASTERN MICHIGAN +9½ over Army Sports Interaction

No, this isn’t going to be the prettiest game to watch this weekend but it surely is one of Week 1’s best bets. The Army Black Knights have been one of the worst Division 1 teams for the better part of the last decade and have, to the best of my knowledge, never been this close to being a double-digit road favorite to start the season. This is a team that has won a total of two road games over the last four years and while Eastern Michigan isn’t going to do anything this year, the mere fact that you have to lay 9½-points on the road with the Black Knights is absurd. At best, if you like Army in this game you wait and see what they do in this spot but any smart handicapper will tell you it’s foolish to lay points with a team that hasn’t been in this position in forever, let alone on the road. The second angle to watch for is the “revenge” factor that readers of this space last year know plays a big part in the college game. Army did indeed beat Eastern Michigan last year and don’t think that the players aren’t aware of that. This isn’t a rivalry game by any stretch but when Army comes into the Eagles stadium for the second year in a row the coaching staff and players have a sense of urgency that doesn’t exist with any other opponent. We could get into the X and O’s of today’s matchup but frankly this is much more of a “situational” play than anything else. Experienced college bettors know never to lay large lumber to inexperienced, run first teams on the road. It’s an easy way to lose money quickly and one of the biggest traps inexperienced college bettors fall into every year. Play: #184 Eastern Michigan 9½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Purdue +10½ over NOTRE DAME PINNACLE

One of the things to consider when looking for a live dog in week one is playing against teams that are overhyped to begin the year and the Irish absolutely fit the bill. Notre Dame is overhyped because of a new coach named Brian Kelly that stepped in and is brimming with confidence, as he hypes his team. Kelly is thriving in the spotlight and in fact, some reports say that he’s had over 140 press interviews since May. Notre Dame is a serious college football program but they’ve been idling in mediocrity for years and Kelly’s blueprint for success is not a five-year plan but rather a five-minute plan. Kelly also made a two-minute music video called “We are ND”. He had talks with NBC about the pace of his “no huddle offense”, as the network was worried about getting in all of its commercials. Fact is, you can’t turn cat food into caviar overnight and the Irish simply aren’t that good. They’ll start a sophomore QB that has no big games in his career and that has thrown 20 career passes. Outside of star receiver Michael Floyd, the offense really doesn’t have much else. The defense has another new coordinator; its third in the last three years and this is a defense that allowed 400 yards per game last season. The Irish return nine defensive starters so they’ll likely be better but certainly not 10½ points better than the Boilermakers. Purdue is dangerous. They started out 1-5 last year before winning four of its last six games. Watch out for QB Robert Mavre, a junior transfer from Miami, who sat out last season with a knee injury but is fully recovered this year and ready to go. The kid is wickedly talented and confident and has a lot of weapons to go to. Purdue has 17 seniors and no matter how you break this one down the Boilermakers are not 10½-points worse than the Irish. Incidentally, the Irish have won six straight season openers and while this is a tough one, it’s still a South Bend rivalry that second-year coach Danny Hope will have his squad ready for. Play: #163 Purdue +10½ (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).    

College picks will appear here on game day for mid-week games and usually on Friday for Saturday's games.  

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