Today's Picks

Chicago Cubs under 82 +1.14 PINNACLE

The Cubs had 83 wins last year and they’re going to have to repeat that this season to go over this total. The thinking is they had an awful year filled with underachieving performances but is that what really happened? For the Cubbies to come close to this number, Derek Lee, Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez will have to stay healthy and all signs point to the fact they cannot. And how about the pitching staff? Well, the bullpen is a complete and utter mess with not a single proven reliever and it looks as follows: Carlos Marmol (closer), Sean Marshall, Justin Berg, John Grabow, David Patton, Carlos Silva and Jeff Samardzija. The #1 man in the rotation is Carlos Zambrano, who is getting worse with age. Zambrano had nine wins a year ago and has been hit hard in the spring this year. Ted Lilly is the #2 man and he’ll start the year on the DL after shoulder surgery this offseason and now issues with his knee are popping up. To round out the rotation the Cubbies will look to Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells and Tom Gorzelanny or Carlos Silva. Remember, Rich Harden is gone and his replacement is Carlos Silva coming off two consecutive bad seasons and one in which he missed the majority of the season with a shoulder injury. Randy Wells is also very unlikely to match his rookie numbers. So, if everything goes great for the Cubs, that is, Lee, Soriano and Ramirez all stay healthy and have good years, Zambrano returns to form from two years ago, Lilly comes back and does well and the Cubs pen performs far beyond expectations, then yeah, they could go over this number. However, perhaps one of those things will come true and as a result, the Cubbies will be extremely hard-pressed to play .500 ball. Last year was not an aberration; that’s who the Cubs are and they’re no better this season and they have no Milton Bradley to blame either. Play: Chicago Cubs under 82 +1.14 (Risking 2 units).

PITTSBURGH over 70½ +1.36 PINNACLE

The Pirates have a great chance to go over this low total because they’re greatly improved and they play in perhaps the league’s worst division. They went out this offseason and made a slew of good moves. Holdovers from last year are budding stars Andrew McCutchen and Garret Jones. Ryan Doumit, Andy LaRoche, Ryan Church, and Lastings Milledge supplement those two in the lineup. Pittsburgh beefed up its pen by adding relievers Javier Lopez, Brendan Donnelly and Octavio Dotel. Donnelly has appeared in 348 games in his career and has a career batting average against of .229 and most of that time was spent in the AL. They also have some depth in the line-up with the additions of Bobby Crosby and 2B Akinori Iwamura. The rotation lacks a true #1 but they’re steady and dependable with Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Carlie Morton, Ross Ohlendorf and if Kevin Hart emerges that would be a huge bonus. The hard-throwing Ohlendorf took a major step forward in the second half of last season and he will look to build on that success. Morton has the best pure stuff of any starter and the Pirates feel this could be his breakout season. Two lefties in the pen, Javier Lopez and Jack Taschner are having solid springs. The Pirates have been awful for years and the result of that is a very low total this season but in this division with this team is highly unlikely they’ll lose 91 games or more. In fact, they could be very close to a .500 club. Play: Pittsburgh over 70½ +1.36 (Risking 2 units). 

Toronto over 71½ +1.16 PINNACLE

Living in Toronto allows me to follow the Jays a lot closer than the other squads and frankly this number is completely out of whack. The public sees the loss of Roy Halliday as the death of the Blue Jays and while it hurts, it’s not as bad as the so-called experts will have you believe. The Jays have proven talent in the rotation and a ton of potential as well. Shaun Marcum is outstanding and although he missed last season he has looked terrific in the spring and it appears as though he hasn’t missed a beat. Ricky Romero is proven and he could even be better this year. Brandon Morrow, Marc Rzepczynski, and Brett Cecil will round out the rotation but don’t forget about Dustin McGowan, who will be available in early April and has outstanding major league stuff. Rzepczynski, Morrow and Cecil have all shown flashes of brilliance and one, two or all three could have great years. The offense is also a strength of the Jays with the 2 through 6 being Vernon Wells, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion and Lyle Overbay. Wells is not washed up and he’s more motivated than ever to prove last season was just an off year. The Jays can hit for power and average and Adam Lind is emerging as a true superstar. Travis Snyder will bat eighth and he’s capable of 25-30 jacks. The Jays pen is solid, the rotation is very solid, the offense is good and unless disaster strikes there is no way this team loses 91 plus despite playing in the AL East. Play: Toronto over 71½ (Risking 2 units).